Since March 2024, 10x Research has adopted a more cautious view of the cryptocurrency market, acknowledging that Bitcoin appears to have entered a bear market based on technical analysis and market fundamentals. Despite some short-term rebounds, the overall market structure is weakening, and recent data suggests a critical tipping point could occur in September due to declining demand.
The stock-to-flow model, once popular for predicting Bitcoin's growth, may no longer be reliable. Instead, 10x Research favors a diminishing returns model focused on demand to better assess Bitcoin's cycle dynamics.
Additionally, the initial surge in Bitcoin Spot ETF buying in February has tapered off, with demand now minimal.
Ethereum and Solana also show signs of overvaluation, with declining revenues and prices, which may further impact market stability as September approaches, historically Bitcoin's weakest month.