The period from October to March has historically yielded much stronger returns, with an average of +40% over the past decade, compared to +27% for the April to September period. This pattern was consistent in both the 2023 and 2024 cycles, with October standing out as the best-performing month, showing average gains of +20% and positive returns in eight out of the last ten years.
Since September 7, the Bitcoin option delta skew, which measures the difference in implied volatility between 25-delta call and put options, has increased from -8% to +1%. This rise indicates that 25-delta calls, with a 25% likelihood of expiring in the money, have become more expensive than equivalent puts, marking the highest skew level since late August and suggesting traders see more potential for upward movement than downside risk.
Bullish news:
- * Trading volumes in the Korean-focused altcoin market have surged, jumping from under $1 billion daily to four consecutive days of $2-3 billion.
- * Demand from MicroStrategy and similar companies could continue to bolster Bitcoin prices as investors seek leveraged exposure to Bitcoin, even with the availability of Bitcoin Spot ETFs
Key dates:
- October 7: Judge Dorsey is expected to approve the FTX creditor plan, with payouts to creditors likely within two months.
- November 5: The U.S. presidential election
- December 15: FASB's new guidance, requires subsequent measurement of certain cryptoassets at fair value, with fair value changes recorded in net income in each reporting period.
- (Pending / Upcoming) Options Clearing Corporation and CFTC to approve the options on the Black IBIT Bitocin ETF
Source: 10x Research - 12 Key Bitcoin Catalysts Set to Skyrocket Prices to Record Highs in Q4!