In 2023, Bitcoin hit a significant low during the Token2049 week, dropping to $25,100. However, it quickly recovered, soaring over 50% in Q4 to meet our year-end target of $45,000. The technical conditions were nearly ideal, with weekly reversal indicators signaling a bottom, while on-chain data showed renewed strength. By late September 2023, our models indicated a breakout for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin gained 26% in October, 9% in November, and 14% in December 2023.
Just a week ago, Bitcoin appeared to be bottoming out from oversold technical levels, supported by our reversal indicators. The Greed & Fear index hit extreme fear levels—historically a trigger for price rebounds.
As predicted, Bitcoin has surged 10% over the past week, hitting our $60,000 target and settling within the $50,000 to $70,000 range. The key questions now are whether this rally is sustainable and where Bitcoin could head next.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is facing resistance along its downtrend line. If it fails to break through, downside risks may return. The $60,000 level is crucial, with a close above the 21-week moving average of $60,565 potentially indicating a bullish trend. Conversely, investors should be cautious if Bitcoin stays below this moving average.
Is the Trump News Affecting Crypto Prices?
At 04:12 GMT+8, Bloomberg reported an incident involving former President Donald Trump, where his Secret Service detail responded to an apparent assassination attempt. Following the report, Bitcoin's price dropped from $60,100 to $58,000, before bouncing back to $58,700 ahead of the next funding period at 4:00 pm (GMT+8). There were no other significant news events that could explain the price movement, leaving it unclear whether the Trump incident had any direct impact on crypto prices.
The Importance of On-Chain Data:
In Bitcoin, using on-chain data sets professionals apart from amateurs. While investment strategies can rely on macroeconomic insights, cycle analysis, and technical indicators, on-chain data provides the confidence to take decisive action when the time is right. In April of this year, on-chain data momentum began to decline, eventually reaching its lowest point.
Source:
10x Research - What Separates the Pros from the Amateurs?
Bloomberg - Trump Is Safe After Apparent Assassination Attempt in Florida